birth rate

False Dawn

April 13, 2009 in demography, Germany 2 Comments Tags: birth rate, Germany

Misleading statistics indicated that Germany’s birth rate was rising because of new, generous government polices. But the statistics were misleading. Despite lavish benefits, the German birth rate continues to drop. Der Spiegel reports

On Tuesday, though, the German Federal Statistical Office released preliminary figures for all of 2008, and the news is not pretty. Rather than the heralded rise in births, 2008 saw a 1.1 percent drop in the birthrate — or 8,000 fewer children for a country already worried about its growing demographic crisis.

Allan Carlsson has observed that it is not possible for a government to buy children. At best government policies can encourage people to have children earlier, but polices will not increase the number of children.

Sectors of Germany, right and left, want to encourage women to enter and to stay in the work force. The number of working-age Germans is dropping rapidly. Business wants a larger work force to keep down wage demands, and therefore wants women in the work force. Egalitarians who want men and women to have identical life-patterns therefore want women in the work force. But it is hard to have a replacement birthrate when women have the pressure of a career.

A Demographic Bounce in Germany

March 10, 2009 in demography, Germany, Population No Comments Tags: birth rate, demography, Germany

Allan Carlson has emphasized that a government can’t buy a higher birthrate. Generous family allowances may encourage couples to have their children earlier in life, but the ultimate birthrate is not affected.

This seems to have happened in Germany. The German government is concerned about the abysmal birthrate in Germany and increased family allowances. Der Spiegel reports

A drop in the number of births in Germany during the months of October and November suggests there may have been a birth rate decline in the country during 2008, despite lavish government benefits for new parents.

For months, it looked like Germany might have put a stop to its shrinking birth rate. Indeed, in 2007, the country actually managed a bit of population growth. And, with a fast graying population that will be knocking on the door of the local pension office in the next few decades, it was high time, too.

But a reversal of Germany’s demographic fortunes has proven to be a mirage.

Birth rates reflect confidence in the future, and ultimately some sort of faith in Providence. Economic hard times will further de[press the birth rate and increase the burden of pensions, which in turn will lower the income of workers, leading to a lower birth rate, and so on. Euthanasia or massive immigration are the obvious solutions; Holland has already adopted the former to control health care costs.